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Weekly Market Update

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Updated January 30, 2023

Brett Sebion, Investment Relationship Manager

Weekly Market Update:

Each week we will offer a very brief market update to help keep you informed on the latest. Want the latest delivered right to your email? Click HERE to provide your email address.

Week of January 23, 2023

Global stocks closed 1.90% higher for the week while international stocks closed 1.03% higher. In the U.S., large-cap and small-cap stocks closed about 2.45% higher. While stocks have had a great start to 2023, they will run into some bigger tests this week. The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday. The market anticipates the Fed to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25%, smaller than the previous increases. Large technology companies will be watched closely as well with Advanced Micro Devices, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon all report earnings.

Week of January 16, 2023

Global stocks closed flat for the week while international stocks closed 0.71% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 0.66% lower while small-cap stocks closed 1.07% lower. Wednesday was a closely watch session with economic data being reported. The producer price index declined 0.5% for the month, way below the Dow Jones estimate of a 0.1% decline. Retail sales fell 1.1% in December which was slightly higher than the 1.0% estimate. Earnings season is in motion this week with several large companies reporting. Johnson & Johnson, Verizon, Microsoft, Boeing, Tesla, American Airlines, and Intel are among the group. The Federal Reserves “preferred” inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditure price index, will be reported on Friday as well.

Week of January 2, 2023

The first week of the New Year treated markets well, with global stocks closing 2.58% higher. International stocks outperformed for the week closing 4.15% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 1.48% higher while small-cap stocks closed 1.85% higher. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 in December, above the estimate of 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, 0.2% lower than last reading and also better than the estimates. The market felt confident with the reading and closed 2.31% higher on Friday. Not a ton of economic data being released this week but the closely watched CPI number will drop on Thursday. The year-over-year median forecast is 6.6%, down from last month’s reading of 7.1%.

Week of December 30, 2022

2022 is in the books in what was a mostly frustrating year for investors. Global stocks closed down about 18.65% while international stocks closed down about 16.50%. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 18.40% lower for the year while small-cap stocks closed about 21% lower. The bond market had its headwinds as well with yields rising across the world. The yield on the U.S. 10-Year Treasury rose from 1.63% to 3.88% in 2022. Interest rates are inversely correlated to bond prices, so this put downward pressure on bond prices for most of the year. The first week in 2023 is not short of economic data. On Wednesday, investors will get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) as well as the FED minutes. Friday will bring the December jobs report that will measure if the Federal Reserve has had any success in cooler the labor market.

Week of December 12, 2022

Global stocks closed 2.02% lower for the week and 5.56% off their weekly high. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 2.10% lower while small-cap stocks closed 1.93% lower. Global stocks are on their first two-week losing streak since September. Stocks started off the week in positive territory after the CPI number was reported on Tuesday but struggled to catch a bid after the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark rate by another 0.50% on Wednesday. The consumer price index (CPI) rose just 0.1% month-over-month, and 7.1% from a year ago, compared to estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%, respectively.

Week of December 5, 2022

Global stocks closed 2.65% lower for the week. International stocks outperformed for the second week in a row closing 1.40% lower. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 3.35% lower while small-cap stocks 5.01% lower. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase its benchmark rate by another 0.50% at their two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday. This follows multiple 0.75% increases going back to June. The government will also be releasing November’s consumer price index (CPI) reading on Tuesday.

Week of November 28, 2022

Global stocks closed 1.62% higher for the week. International stocks outperformed for the week closing 2.32% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed about 1.15% higher while small-cap stocks closed about 1.35% higher. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed smaller interest rate hikes are likely in the future but also emphasized monetary policy is likely to stay restrictive for some time. “Despite some promising developments, we have a long way to go in restoring price stability”, Powell stated at the Brookings Institution. Markets however like the statements as they closed 2.84% higher on Wednesday.

Week of November 21, 2022

In another slow week of trading, global stocks closed 1.55% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 1.59% higher while small-cap stocks closed about 1% higher. Consumers spent a record $9.12 billion online shopping during Black Friday this year, a new record. Cyber Monday is expected to be even bigger. Protests broke out in China as citizens’ frustrations rise with President Xi Jinping’s hard “zero Covid” policy. According to a CNBC article, “The protests started Friday in the city of Urumqi in Xinjiang province, where 10 people died in an apartment fire in an area that had been under lockdown for several months.”

Week of November 14, 2022

Global stocks closed 0.75% lower in a slower trading week on Wall Street. Investors will expect the same with the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 0.62% lower while small-cap stocks closed 1.70% lower. For the second week in a row, the retail sector will be a focus for investors. Best BuyNordstromDollar Tree, and Dick’s all report earnings on Tuesday. Wall Street’s reaction (so far) to retail earnings have been relatively muted.

Week of November 7, 2022

Global stocks closed 6.39% higher for the week and have posted positive returns the last four out of six weeks. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 5.89% higher while small-cap stocks closed 4.60% higher. The consumer price index (or CPI) increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. Both readings were lower than the estimates of 0.6% and 7.9%, respectively, and was a positive catalyst for risk assets on Thursday and Friday. Earnings season is winding down but not before the retailers come under spotlight. Home Depot, Walmart, Lowe’s, Target, Macy’s, and Kohl’s all report this week which will give investors a reading on the pulse of retail consumers.

Week of October 31, 2022

Global stocks closed 1.19% lower for the week. International stocks outperformed U.S. stocks for the week closing 2.47% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 3.26% lower while small-cap stocks closed 2.45% lower. In expected fashion, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.75% to a target range of 3.75% – 4%. Their statement hinted at a potential change in how it will approach policy to bring down inflation. Markets initially rallied on the statement release but quickly reversed as Fed Chair Jerome Powell dismissed the idea the Fed may be pausing soon.

Week of October 24, 2022

Global stocks had another impressive week closing 3.08% higher. International stocks closed 1.61% higher for the week. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 3.94% higher while small-cap stocks closed 6.06% higher. Investors will be anticipating yet another Fed week. The Federal Reserve’s meeting starts Tuesday, and the central bank is expected to raise the federal funds rate by another 0.75%.

Week of October 17, 2022

Global stocks closed 4.18% higher, their best week since late June. International stocks closed 3.47% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed about 4.65% higher while small-cap stocks closed about 3.55% higher. The yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury traded to 4.34% on Friday, a 14-year high. It’s the biggest week yet for earnings season where investors will be watching the largest technology companies report.

Week of October 10, 2022

Global stocks closed 1.81% lower for the week and international stocks closed 2.29% lower. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed about 1.40% lower while small-cap stocks closed about 1.10% lower. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate. “Headline” inflation was up 8.2% year-over-year, more than the 8.1% estimate. The report initially sent stocks tumbling on Thursday but those losses quickly reversed and global stocks closed about 4.7% higher from the lows made that morning. Earnings season will start gaining momentum across different sectors. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, and American Airlines all report this week.

Week of October 3, 2022

Global stocks closed 1.53% higher for the week but closed 4.20% off their weekly high. Friday alone sent global stocks down about 2.55%. International stocks closed 1.60% higher for the week. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 1.57% higher while small-cap stocks closed 2.24% higher. September’s nonfarm payrolls reported a 263,000 gain in jobs, a little below the 275,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% and was estimated to come in at 3.5%. While job gains came in below estimates, September’s report confirms the job market remains strong and the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. According to CNBC, “Futures pricing Friday pointed to an 82% chance of a 0.75-point move in November, then a 0.5- point increase in December followed by another 0.25-point move in February”.

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Brett Sebion, Investment Relationship Manager