Weekly Market Update:
Each week we will offer a very brief market update to help keep you informed on the latest. Want the latest delivered right to your email? Click HERE to provide your email address.
Market Updates
Week of January 13, 2025 – Global and international stocks climbed +2.74% and +2.22% higher, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks rose +2.93% higher, and small-cap stocks were +3.97% higher. For fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed +0.99% and +0.46% higher, respectively. Stock and bond markets rebounded to their best weekly performance since November. Investors celebrated December inflation data that was below expectations. Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) posted monthly readings of +0.2% and +0.1%, respectively. This data helped temporarily calm investors’ recent worries about an uptick in inflation and drove bond yields lower. On the other hand, bank earnings were boosted by a recent pick up in deal activity. Big bank executives anticipate more activity to continue as interest rates come down and regulation is expected to be lighter with the new U.S. administration.
Looking ahead, markets are closed on Monday for the holiday, and President Trump will be inaugurated for his second term. Notable earnings this week will come from 3M, Netflix, United Airlines, Johnson & Johnson, American Airlines, and Verizon.
Week of January 6, 2025 – Global and international stocks fell by -1.74% and -1.38%, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks declined by -1.91%, while small-cap stocks closed -3.49% lower. In the fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds decreased by -0.87% and -0.64%, respectively. Stock and bond market returns were challenged as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose. Higher bond yields reduce the price of existing bonds and are typically a headwind for stocks.
The increase in yields has been driven by investor expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than previously anticipated. Stronger economic data has led to these expectations, as some fear that inflation may increase alongside economic growth, prompting the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer. For instance, both the ISM Services Index and the U.S. jobs report posted results above their median forecasts this week.
In the week ahead, data from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide further insight into the current state of inflation. Additionally, Q4 earnings will start to pick up with reports from large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Bank of America scheduled to release their reports on Wednesday and Thursday.
Week of December 30, 2024 – Global and international stocks declined -0.36% and -0.31%, respectively. In U.S. markets, large-cap stocks fell -0.45% and small-cap stocks were up +1.13%. For fixed income, U.S. and international bonds closed +0.18% and +0.10% higher, respectively. The global stock market slightly pulled back in the final trading days of 2024 after a positive week prior. Initial jobless claims posted its lowest value in eight months to wrap up a historically low year for layoffs. On Friday, ISM manufacturing released its December value of 49.3. While this is a nine-month high, the index remains in contractionary territory (a value below 50) to start the new year.
Looking ahead, markets will have another shortened week as U.S. markets are closed on Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter. ISM services will come out on Tuesday, and the December U.S. jobs report will be released Friday.
Week of December 23, 2024 – Global stocks climbed +0.72%, and international stocks were +0.92% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks rose +0.70%, and small-cap stocks squeaked out a +0.11% return. For fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed -0.33% and -0.24% lower, respectively. Stock markets rebounded following two weeks of negative returns, while bond prices were pushed lower for the third straight week. The 10-year US Treasury yield has moved consistently higher since the Federal Reserve announced a reduction in their expected interest rate cuts for the next few years, which has been a headwind for bonds. On Monday, the monthly reading from the consumer confidence index came out below expectations. New home sales were also lower than anticipated as high interest rates, high home prices, and low supply keep some potential home buyers on the sidelines.
Looking at the week ahead, markets will be closed on Wednesday for New Year’s Day. Initial jobless claims will be posted on Thursday, and ISM manufacturing will come out on Friday.
Week of December 16, 2024 – Global stocks were -2.43% lower, and international stocks declined -3.18%. In U.S. markets, large and small-cap stocks fell -1.97% and -4.43%, respectively. For fixed income, U.S. bonds dropped -0.69% and international bonds closed -0.16% lower. Investors reacted negatively to the Federal Reserve’s quarterly ‘Summary of Economic Projections’ report released Wednesday following a 25 basis point interest rate cut. In the report, the median FOMC member now expects fewer interest rate cuts in the next three years than their previous projections. On the other hand, November’s PCE inflation came out lower than expected, which was positive for the markets. The PCE index has risen only 2.4% over the past twelve months compared to the Fed’s 2% target. Over the weekend, Congress passed a spending bill to avert a government shutdown and approve federal government spending for the next three months.
Looking ahead, it will be a quieter week with the Christmas holiday, but stock investors are hoping for a year-end rally. Since 1969, the S&P 500 has risen by over 1%, on average, in the last five trading days of the year and the first two days in January.
Week of December 9, 2024 – Most markets were slightly down on the week. Global and international stocks dropped -0.82% and -0.98% lower, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks fell -0.61% and small-cap stocks were -2.55% lower. Fixed income markets declined as U.S. and international bonds closed -1.38% and -0.16% lower, respectively. November inflation data from the CPI and PPI brought no surprises to investors, and the core measures of these indices were unchanged from October. This data seems to cement a quarter of a percentage point interest rate cut from the FOMC before year-end. Investors are showing a 99% probability of this cut to come from the Fed’s decision on Wednesday.
Additionally this week, monthly U.S. retail sales data will come out on Tuesday amidst consumer’s holiday shopping. The personal consumption and expenditures report will also be released on Friday, bringing results from the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
Week of December 2, 2024 – Global and international stocks climbed +1.22% and +1.40% higher, respectively. Specific to the U.S., large-cap stocks were +0.99% higher while small-cap stocks declined -1.02%.
In fixed income markets, U.S. bonds rose +0.45% and international bonds closed +0.28% higher. ISM manufacturing results were stronger than expected for November, climbing to a five-month high. However, the U.S. manufacturing sector remains in contractionary territory for the eighth consecutive month. In other news, the U.S. labor market added 227,000 jobs in November. This beat Wall Street’s estimate and was a large rebound from last month’s 36,000 job increase. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% but is still historically low.
Following this data, investors now significantly favor an interest rate cut at the FOMC’s meeting later this month. It will be interesting to see if rate cut probabilities change following the CPI and PPI inflation prints on Wednesday and Thursday this coming week.
Week of November 25, 2024 – Global and international stocks both saw a +1.01% gain during the week. In the U.S., large-cap stocks were +1.08% higher, and small-cap stocks climbed +1.19%. In fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed +1.39% and +0.84% higher, respectively. Markets grinded higher during the shortened trading week as there were no big surprises with economic data. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation index (PCE Index) posted a +0.2% increase in prices for October, which brought the trailing twelve-month inflation reading to +2.3%. Inflation remains near the Fed’s 2% annual target, and the FOMC continues to digest economic data to determine the best path for interest rates. The FOMC’s next interest rate decision will come on December 18th.
This week, stay tuned for November ISM manufacturing and services reports released on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Initial jobless claims will be posted on Thursday, and the U.S. jobs report will come out on Friday.
Week of November 18, 2024 – Global and international stocks were up +1.60% and +0.91%, respectively. In U.S. markets, large-cap stocks closed +1.72% higher, and small-cap stocks soared +4.49% higher. For fixed income, U.S. and international bonds were both up +0.19% on the week. Stock and bond markets rebounded higher after a more difficult week prior, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average even reached a record close on Friday. Jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since April as the U.S. economy continues its steady growth and most businesses aren’t laying many people off. With a strong U.S. consumer and economy so far in 2024, the holiday shopping season is expected to be positive for retail companies as well.
Looking ahead, it is a shortened trading week with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and markets closing early on Black Friday. Investors will also be watching a big earnings day on Tuesday with quarterly reports from retailers such as Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Nordstrom.
Week of November 11, 2024 – Global stocks fell -2.33% and international stocks dropped -2.95%. In the U.S., large-cap stocks declined only -2.05% compared to -3.96% for small-cap stocks. For fixed income, U.S. bonds closed -0.85% lower while international bonds saw a +0.11% return. October’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation data aligned with economists’ estimates, and the indices have hovered slightly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target for a few months. Although total inflation has fallen significantly in the past 2+ years, shelter is one component of CPI that has remained a little sticky compared to other categories. Shelter prices have risen 4.9% over the last year and something that economists continue to monitor. U.S. retail sales beat estimates in October propelled by strong automobile sales and restaurant spending. U.S. economic growth continues to be supported by strong consumer spending, one of the backbones of the economy.
Notable events this week include Nvidia releasing its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, various data on the housing market posted throughout the week, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
Week of November 4, 2024 – Most stock and bond indices rallied higher. Global and international stocks rose +3.27% and +0.32%, respectively. In the U.S., smaller stocks saw the biggest gains closing +8.61% higher. Large-cap stocks still performed well with a +4.69% return. For fixed income, U.S. and international bonds climbed +0.78% and +0.24% higher, respectively. Markets have more clarity now, with the U.S. election results decided, and are likely celebrating an uncontested election. In other news, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected. Following the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated the U.S. economy is doing very well and the FOMC remains on a path to neutral interest rates. Supportive of Powell’s comments, the ISM services index climbed to 56% in October. This is the highest reading since July 2022 and shows strong growth in U.S. service businesses.
In the week ahead, CPI and PPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Home Depot and Disney will also release quarterly earnings reports as the Q3 earnings season winds down.
Week of October 28, 2024 – Most markets were lower this week as global and international stocks declined -1.17% and -0.93%, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks fell -1.35% but small-cap stocks were +0.11% higher. Fixed income also struggled as yields rose higher. U.S. and international bonds closed -0.61% and -0.31% lower, respectively. Highlighting the week was the U.S. jobs report showing only 12,000 jobs added in October, compared to economists’ median estimate of 110,000. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates at least 94,000 jobs were reduced from this number due to the ongoing Boeing labor strike and recent hurricanes. Regarding inflation, the PCE index continued its downward trend, falling to a rate of only 2.1% in the past twelve months as of September. U.S. growth also remained solid with a GDP print of 2.8% for Q3.
Looking at the week ahead, investors will anticipate the U.S. election results after polls close on Tuesday, the FOMC will release its interest-rate decision on Thursday, and companies will continue to release Q3 earnings. Notable companies scheduled to post earnings results this week are CVS, Qualcomm, Under Armour, Moderna, Airbnb, and Rivian.
Week of October 21, 2024 – It was a softer week in markets as global and international stocks fell -1.42% and -2.22%, respectively. For U.S. equities, large-cap stocks dropped -0.96% and small-cap stocks closed -2.99% lower. Fixed income saw slightly less decline with U.S. and international bonds declining only -0.92% and -0.30% during the week, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 stock indices broke their six-week winning streak, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index saw a +0.16% return. Also, consumer sentiment rose to its highest reading since April even with the U.S. election right around the corner. Looking at the week ahead, it will be the busiest week for Q3 earnings. McDonald’s, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway are a handful of companies releasing quarterly results. Additionally, Q3 U.S. GDP will be posted on Wednesday, the PCE Index will report September’s inflation data on Thursday, and the U.S. jobs report will come out on Friday.
Week of October 14, 2024 – Global stocks climbed +0.41% higher while international stocks fell -0.45%. U.S. equities continued their recent run as large and small-cap stocks closed +0.87% and +1.87% higher, respectively. In fixed income, U.S. bonds rose +0.05% and international bonds were +0.56% higher. Stocks continued to grind higher as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both posted their sixth straight positive week. So far this quarter, 14% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, and both earnings and revenue have risen around 4% in the last twelve months. This week, about 20% of companies in the S&P are scheduled to report earnings including General Motors, Boeing, Tesla, IBM, Southwest Airlines, and American Airlines. Additionally, various Fed presidents will speak this week and may provide insight on future monetary policy.
Week of October 7, 2024 – Global stocks rose +0.52% while international stocks closed -0.70% lower. For U.S. equities, large and small-cap stocks were +1.13% and +0.99% higher, respectively. U.S. bonds fell -0.46% and international bonds closed -0.21% lower. Stocks continued to rally higher with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record closes on Friday. Inflation also remained around the Fed’s 2% target with September’s year-over-year CPI and PPI readings of 2.4% and 1.8%, respectively. Looking ahead, investors will continue to digest Q3 earnings, U.S. election news, and monetary policy as markets determine if stocks can continue to move higher. Notable companies reporting earnings this week are Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Procter & Gamble.
