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Week of December 8th Recap
Stocks ended last week mixed. A widely anticipated Federal Reserve decision on interest rates and a rotation into non-tech areas helped push the Dow Industrials higher, while the broader market and technology stocks lagged behind.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.63 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.62 percent. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.05 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 0.89 percent.1,2
Market Rotation After Fed Decision
Stocks stayed in a fairly tight trading range over the first half of the week. Tech remained a strong spot on Monday despite slight to modest declines in all three major averages.3
By Tuesday’s close, all three major averages were slightly to modestly lower week-to-date as the Fed’s last interest-rate-setting meeting of the year approached.4
Then, on Wednesday morning, stocks rose ahead of the Fed’s announcement that it was lowering rates by a quarter percentage point—a widely expected move. By the close, all three major averages ended in the green.5,6
A market rotation theme dominated the rest of the week, as investors shifted into cyclical areas of the economy that are likely to benefit from an economic rebound. The Nasdaq ended Thursday’s session lower, while the S&P and Dow Industrials hit fresh record closes. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks also notched new closing highs.7
The rotation into value stocks continued on Friday, with some AI names coming under pressure. The financial, healthcare, and industrial sectors were among the groups that seemed to benefit from the rotation.8
No Surprise, Just Tea Leaves
Last week’s rate decision from the Federal Reserve was no big surprise. Speculators had already priced in this outcome weeks ago.
Now for reading the tea leaves: First, Fed Chair Powell stated in his press conference on Wednesday that they have ruled out a rate hike for the foreseeable future, but also noted that it would be a higher bar for further rate reductions. Another point was the degree of dissent: the vote was 9-3.9
Then on Friday, voting members who dissented expressed views on inflation and jobs, and which risk was the more important one to address through monetary policy.10
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Homebuilder Confidence Index.
Tuesday: Employment Reports, Oct.* (limited) + Nov. (full). Retail Sales, Oct.* Business Inventories, Sept.* Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)—Services. Purchasing Managers Index —Manufacturing.
Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Weekly Jobless Claims. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey.
Friday: Existing Home Sales. Consumer Sentiment.
* indicates publication of a report delayed by the government shutdown
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; December 12, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to provide accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision.
Week of December 1st Recap
Stock prices pushed higher last week, notching multiple records along the way as employment and inflation data took center stage in anticipation of the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 0.91 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.50 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.72 percent.1,2
Fed in Spotlight
Stocks fell to start the week as all three averages snapped a five-day win streak.3
Megacap tech stocks then led a recovery rally, which continued its momentum midweek as ADP’s November report showed a decline in private-sector payrolls. Investors welcomed the report, believing it might prompt an interest rate adjustment at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. All three major averages posted modest gains over both Tuesday and Wednesday.4,5
Stocks then largely went sideways, with small gains for the S&P and Nasdaq while the Dow fell slightly. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000, which measures the performance of small-cap stocks, has cracked a fresh record high.6
Markets rallied on Friday after a delayed inflation report showed that prices rose at a slightly slower annualized rate in September. The S&P closed out a four-day winning streak.7
Economy Watch
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation stayed cool. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.8 percent in September from a year prior, cooler than the 2.9 percent expected. The annualized core inflation rate of 2.8 percent also came in just under expectations.8
The ADP private-sector jobs showed employers cut 32,000 jobs in November. Two things to remember: (1) this report is only based on the first two weeks of November, and (2) small business payrolls declined by 120,000, while employers with 50 or more workers added 90,000 jobs.9,10
An optimistic inflation report but a sluggish jobs update added to growing speculation that the Fed will adjust rates at its next (and last) meeting of the year.11
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Job Openings (Oct.)* Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Day 1.
Wednesday: Employment Cost Index (Q3).* Federal Budget. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Day 2. Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Press Conference. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Day 2. Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Press Conference.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims.
* Indicates publication of a report that had been delayed by the government shutdown
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; December 5, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of November 24th Recap
Stocks pushed higher over the holiday week as investors’ hopes for a Fed rate adjustment drove bullish sentiment.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 3.73 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 4.91 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 3.18 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased 3.15 percent.1,2
AI Powered
A rebound rally began on Monday as the artificial intelligence (AI) business strategy of one of the largest megacap tech stocks reignited positive sentiment in the AI trade. The enthusiasm broadened out to a number of AI-related names, lifting the S&P 500 by 1.5 percent and the Nasdaq by 2.7 percent—its biggest one-day gain in more than six months.3
Stocks rose again on Tuesday and Wednesday—the third and fourth consecutive trading days of gains, respectively, for all three major averages.
Overall bullish holiday sentiment, positive news on a handful of AI-related megacap tech names, and continued investor optimism for the Fed to adjust rates at its next meeting powered the advances.
Markets continued their rise after the Thanksgiving holiday, with stocks rounding out the shortened trading session with a fifth consecutive day of gains.4,5
Keeping Score on the Consumer
As we move full steam ahead into the holiday shopping season, investors are closely watching consumer data.
The fresh consumer spending data released last week was the first update. The delayed report showed the pace of retail sales in September cooled slightly over the prior month, just shy of expectations.
Next up was the Conference Board’s November survey, which showed that consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 from 99.5 in October.6
Investors may be anxiously awaiting the October retail sales report and closely monitoring other consumer data points for clues about the future direction of the economy.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: PMI Manufacturing Index. ISM Manufacturing.
Tuesday: Auto Sales.
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report. Import Prices (Sept.)* PMI Services Index. ISM Services.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Trade Deficit (Oct.)
Friday: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (Sept.)*
*indicates publication of a report that had been delayed by the government shutdown
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 28, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of November 17th Recap
Heightened volatility was on Wall Street’s mind last week, as investors continued to focus on valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 1.95 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.74 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.91 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slumped 3.25 percent.1,2
AI Valuation Worries
Stocks slid over the first half of the week as anticipation continued to build for Q3 results from one of the largest AI megacap tech stocks, due out midweek.
While the decline was led by megacap tech stocks, which typically drag down both the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the Dow Industrials also fell. With the government still playing catch-up on a backlog of economic reports following the shutdown, investors kept a close eye on big consumer-related stocks for insights into the economy.3
Then midweek, all three major averages rebounded, with the S&P snapping a four-day losing streak. Sentiment improved as investors turned more positive about another AI firm’s quarterly report due out after Wednesday’s closing bell.4
That firm’s results helped boost stocks after the opening bell on Thursday, but prices retreated quickly as investor anxiety built over whether the Fed would adjust rates next month. The Fed’s October meeting minutes revealed divisions among the Committee’s voting members. Additionally, the Labor Department’s September jobs report painted a mixed employment picture, which might complicate the Fed’s decision.5
Stocks rebounded on Friday after New York Fed President John Williams seemed to reassure investors that a rate adjustment at the Fed’s December meeting was still a possibility. The bounce was jagged, as the rebound had to battle through disappointing economic data on consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity.6
More Jobs, but Higher Jobless Rate
The delayed September jobs report came out last week, and showed employers added 119,000 jobs—the strongest monthly gain since April and a rebound from August’s loss of 4,000 jobs (which was later revised to a 22,000 gain). The jobs report was among the first post-shutdown reports to be published by the Labor Department.
The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4 percent, higher than the 4.3 percent economists expected. It was the highest number in four years.
This was the Labor Department’s last monthly employment report before the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10.7
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Retail Sales (Sept). Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Sept). Business Inventories (Sept). Consumer Confidence. Pending Home Sales.
Wednesday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Durable Goods Orders (Sept).
Thursday: THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY—MARKETS CLOSED
Friday: Chicago Business Barometer.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 21, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of November 10th Recap
Stocks ended mixed after a nail-biting week for investors, who grew anxious over megacap tech valuations and interest rates as the government shutdown came to an end.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index edged up 0.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.45 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.34 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, advanced 1.63 percent.1,2
Rotating into Value
The week began with stocks rising, fueled by hopes that the longest-ever government shutdown could soon end as a federal funding bill moved closer to Congressional approval. Building on these early gains, the Nasdaq advanced more than 2 percent and the S&P 500 added 1½ percent.3
Stocks rose at the opening bell on Tuesday following news that the Senate had passed a bill to end the shutdown, but sentiment quickly turned as tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq and S&P. Meanwhile, the Dow rose modestly. However, by midday, sentiment shifted positively, and the Dow and S&P 500 closed in the green.4
Midweek, growing conviction that the government would reopen continued to push the Dow Industrials higher. As a result, the Dow achieved its first record close above 48,000, with the S&P remaining flat and the Nasdaq slipping. Once the government reopened Thursday morning, attention quickly turned to tech valuations and an earnings miss from a large entertainment conglomerate. This shift also prompted investors to worry whether the Fed would adjust interest rates next month. Despite a brief dip as the week concluded, markets stabilized, with the Nasdaq and S&P recovering near the flatline, while the Dow lagged slightly.5,6,7
Restarting the Data Engine
It takes time to get a tanker ship up and running again after a full stop. That’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is doing now, as the government stats engine resumes.
Using the last government shutdown (in 2013) as a baseline, about half of the BLS reports that have not yet been published could be ready by the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on December 9-10. The remainder of the backlogged reports (including October reports) are estimated to be published on a rolling basis through mid-January.8
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Fed officials Philip Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, and Christopher Waller speak.
Tuesday: Import Prices (October). Industrial Production (October). Capacity Utilization (October). Home Builder Confidence Index. Fed governor Michael Barr speaks.
Wednesday: Housing Starts (October). Building Permits (October). Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, October meeting.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales (October). Leading Economic Indicators (October). Fed governor Lisa Cook and Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee (Chicago) and Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) speak.
Friday: Fed governor Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speak. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey—Services. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey—Manufacturing. Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 14, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of November 3rd Recap
Stocks hit a rough patch last week as fresh labor market data, low consumer sentiment, and the ongoing government shutdown unnerved investors.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.63 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 3.04 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.21 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, edged down 0.83 percent.1,2
Nasdaq’s Toughest Week Since April
Stocks started the week mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose modestly, while the Dow Industrials fell.3,4
Markets stabilized midweek after an ADP jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring by private employers in October. The report buoyed investor sentiment, pushing all three major averages higher.5
However, stocks fell as investor concerns over stock valuations persisted, particularly among companies related to AI. Following a well-known outplacement firm’s report of a steep increase in corporate layoffs, selling pressure intensified as investors continued to react to data updates from alternative sources in the absence of official government data.
Stocks slid again on Friday after news that consumer sentiment hit its lowest level in three years. The survey data appeared to exacerbate investor nerves about the reading’s connection to a fragile labor market and the impacts of the government shutdown.
But all three major averages then began a recovery rally midday Friday, with the S&P and Dow Industrials climbing back into the green and the Nasdaq regaining nearly all of its losses by the closing bell.6
Labor Market Paradox
Payroll processing company ADP’s monthly employment report has become a prominent alternative source for jobs data in the wake of the government shutdown. However, it doesn’t always tell the whole story.
ADP’s latest jobs report showed private employers hired at a much stronger pace than expected in October. U.S. companies added 42,000 jobs in October, nearly double the 22,000 new jobs economists expected. Given that 29,000 jobs went away in September, the October figure was welcome news for investors; it was also the first increase in three months. The bulk of the job gains came from the trade, transportation, utilities, education, and health sectors.7
Other data out last week told a different story. Another report showed layoff announcements in October hit a 22-year high for the month, making this year the worst for layoffs since 2009.8,9
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Wednesday: Federal Reserve Presidents Anna Paulson (Philadelphia) and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta) speak.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims.* Consumer Price Index (CPI).* Fed Presidents John Williams (New York), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis), Beth Hammack (Cleveland), and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta) speak. Federal Budget.
Friday: Retail Sales.* Producer Price Index (PPI).* Business Inventories.* Fed Presidents Jeff Schmid (Kansas City) and Lorie Logan (Dallas) speak.
* Data for these indicators may be delayed or altogether unavailable due to the government shutdown.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; November 7, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of October 27th Recap
Stocks rose last week as trade developments, positive Q3 corporate results, and momentum in megacap tech drove another rally, despite some cautious comments from the Fed.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.71 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index picked up 2.24 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.55 percent.1,2
Stocks Up for Third Straight Week
Stocks rose over the first half of the week on news that Chinese and U.S. officials were working on a trade deal. Meanwhile, a rise in AI-related tech names lifted the broader market ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. All three major averages notched record closing highs for the first two days of the week, including the S&P 500 closing above 6800 for the first time.3,4
Stocks continued their rise Wednesday morning as the AI trade continued to fuel momentum. But markets wobbled following the FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point. Chair Powell’s comments that the Fed may not adjust rates in December cut short the market’s rally.5,6
Stocks bounced out of the gate on Friday, with the Nasdaq leading gains for all three major averages as several megacap tech companies rallied on upbeat Q3 results and other corporate news.7
‘Not a Foregone Conclusion’
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by 0.25 percent. But as often happens for those trying to read the Fed tea leaves, it was the finer messaging points that moved the markets.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting press conference that another rate adjustment in December was “not a foregone conclusion.” He added that Fed policy is “not on a pre-set course.” Part of that, he said, was due to the ongoing government shutdown and the resulting dearth of economic data—and the challenge in setting monetary policy without ongoing reports.8
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: PMI Composite–Manufacturing. ISM Manufacturing. Construction Spending. * Auto Sales. Fed governor Lisa Cook speaks.
Tuesday: Trade Deficit. * Factory Orders. Job Openings.
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report. PMI Composite–Services. ISM Services.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. * Productivity. * Wholesale Inventories. * Federal Reserve Officials speak: New York Fed President Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, St. Louis Fed President Musalem.
Friday: Jobs Report. * Consumer Sentiment. Consumer Credit. Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.
* Data for these indicators may be delayed or altogether unavailable due to the government shutdown.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 31, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of October 20th Recap
Stocks rose last week thanks to a full slate of upbeat third-quarter corporate results and mild inflation data, which helped soften concerns over trade tensions with China.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.92 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.31 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.20 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, rose 1.24 percent.1,2
S&P, Dow Set New Highs on Friday
Stocks rose out of the gate as optimism returned to markets. Strength in the tech sector—and whispers of an imminent end to the government shutdown—pushed all three market averages higher.3
But the strong start turned mixed as some pressure on megacap tech stocks pulled down the Nasdaq. But while tech stocks regrouped, attention shifted to the Dow Industrials, which hit a record intraday high of 47,000 and a record close.4
Sentiment soured midweek as weaker-than-expected earnings results from two megacap tech companies dragged down technology names. Markets came under further pressure following news that the administration was considering restrictions on U.S.-made software exported to China. The S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed lower on Wednesday.5
But the mood brightened Thursday as more megacap tech companies announced strong Q3 results, and as the White House confirmed a scheduled meeting with China.
News on Friday that inflation rose more slowly than expected boosted all three averages. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials hit all-time intraday and closing highs.6
Inflation Eases
The Consumer Price Index report, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed prices rose by 3.0 percent in September on an annualized basis, slightly cooler than the 3.1 percent forecast.
This news paved the way for the Fed to stick with its penciled-in rate cut at its two-day meeting, which ends on October 29.
In addition to the upbeat inflation news, Q3 corporate earnings–one of the key drivers of stock prices–have been beating expectations 80% of the time as of Friday.7
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Durable Goods.
Tuesday: Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday: Trade Balance in Goods. Retail & Wholesale Inventories. Pending Home Sales. Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Day 2. Fed Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Press Conference.
Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Weekly Jobless Claims. Fed Official Michelle Bowman speaks.
Friday: Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index. Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland Fed President Hammack, and Atlantic Fed President Bostic speak.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 24, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of October 13th Recap
Stocks pushed higher last week, buoyed by strong third-quarter results posted by several money center banks.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 1.70 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.14 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.56 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.74 percent.1,2
A Bumpy Week
Stocks rose to start the week after the White House shifted tone over the weekend on trade relations with China. Gains were broad-based—4 out of 5 stocks in the S&P 500 rose—with the index posting its best day since May 27.3
Overnight, the specter of a revived trade war with China reemerged after the country placed sanctions on U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilders in an apparent effort to increase its control over global shipping. Stocks opened sharply lower the next morning, and then quickly staged an impressive rebound—helped by mostly positive quarterly earnings results from a handful of big money center banks.4
Stocks rose again midweek as better-than-expected Q3 corporate results from the biggest banks continued to roll in, overpowering negative sentiment around lingering trade concerns. As the week wrapped, bank stocks and all three broad market averages pushed through jitters to end in the green.5,6,7
Bank Stock Paradox
While trade tensions with China dominated the attention during the week, some bank news also captured investor interest.
Last week, several money center banks reported expectation-beating Q3 results, underscoring the narrative of a healthy economy and robust consumer spending.
But there was a flip side to the banking sector: a smaller regional bank reported a $50 million credit loss from two commercial loans. The loss also hit larger banks with a stake in the loss. The news rattled the markets. For investors, it evoked memories of two regional bank failures in 2023, raised questions about whether this was a broader systemic issue, and put pressure on bank stocks, both big and small.8
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Leading Economic Indicators.
Tuesday: Fed governor Christopher Waller speaks.
Wednesday: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. 20-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Auction.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Existing Home Sales. Fed Balance Sheet.
Friday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). New Home Sales. PMI Composite–Services. PMI Composite–Manufacturing. Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 17, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of October 6th Recap
Stocks fell last week amid concerns about trade with China, following an unsteady rally to record highs over the first half of the week.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 2.43 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 2.53 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.73 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 1.64 percent.1,2
Stocks Set Highs Before Friday’s Drop
Stocks began the week mostly positive. However, Monday marked Day 6 of the government shutdown, and two of the three major averages powered through any bearish sentiment. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each advanced to record closes on fresh enthusiasm for mergers & acquisitions activity after the announcement of two deals. By contrast, the Dow fell slightly.3,4
Stocks pushed higher midweek as investors looked past the Fed meeting minutes from September, which revealed somewhat divided opinions on interest rates. The S&P and Nasdaq both closed at record highs.4
On Friday, sentiment turned negative a little over an hour into the trading session after the White House announced a tariff increase on imported goods from China. The decline, led by chip manufacturers, erased the week’s gains. It was the largest single-day decline for stocks since April.5,6,7
China In Focus
Meanwhile, focus turned to new export controls that China imposed on so-called rare earth metals—key ingredients for AI-powered microchips and vital resources for the defense industry. Investor concern centered mostly around AI chip companies, which have exposure to China both as customers and in terms of manufacturing.8
The White House threatened to cancel its upcoming meeting with the Chinese president over the dispute. China controls approximately 70 percent of the global supply of rare earth metals, meaning a policy change can impact markets.8
Separately, the government shutdown entered its second week. Shutdowns typically don’t heavily impact markets, but the uncertainty continues to hang over trading.9
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks.
Tuesday: Small Business (NFIB) Optimism Index. Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, and Boston Fed President Susan Collins speak.
Wednesday: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and Fed governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller speak. Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Retail Sales. Producer Price Index (PPI). Weekly Jobless Claims. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and Fed governors Michelle Bowman, Stephen Miran, and Christopher Waller speak.
Friday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Import Prices. Industrial Production. Capacity Utilization.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 10, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of September 29th Recap
Stocks rose last week, looking past the government shutdown and apparently discounting any impact it may have on the economy.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index moved up 1.08 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.32 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.10 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.53 percent.1,2
Shutdown Talk
The S&P and Nasdaq rose out of the gate Monday morning despite the threat of a possible government shutdown hanging over investor sentiment.3
As the midnight deadline approached for Congress to pass a continuing resolution that would temporarily fund the federal government, the prospect of a shutdown dominated market sentiment. The White House discussed permanent layoffs of some federal workers, stoking fears of further slowing an already sluggish labor market.4
Stocks initially fell on news of the shutdown but recovered by midday, driven by growing investor expectations that the shutdown would be short-lived. The S&P closed above 6700 for the first time.5
Momentum tempered after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested gross domestic product (GDP) may take a hit due to the shutdown, but all three averages recovered and closed at record highs.6
Stocks were mixed on Friday after the Senate failed to pass dueling funding bills that would have prevented the shutdown from entering its second week.7
Jobs Report Delayed
Investors have looked past—but continue to be jittery about—the government shutdown and its potential impact on an otherwise resilient economy, which is experiencing a hiring slowdown.
One of the first impacts felt from the shutdown was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, but delayed until the government reopens for business. However, ADP’s monthly report, released on Wednesday, showed that corporate employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, below the forecast of 45,000 new jobs.8
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Trade Deficit—Goods & Services. Consumer Credit. Fed speeches: Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President), Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision), Stephen Miran (Fed governor), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President).
Wednesday: Fed speeches: Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President), Michael Barr (Fed governor), Neel Kashkari. September FOMC Meeting Minutes. 10-Year Treasury Note Auction.
Thursday: Fed speeches: Chair Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Michael Barr. Weekly Jobless Claims. Wholesale Inventories. Fed Balance Sheet.
Friday: Consumer Sentiment. Federal Budget. Fed President Chicago Austan Goolsbee speech.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; October 3, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of September 22nd Recap
Stocks fell last week, buffeted by concerns about stock price valuations and a possible government shutdown.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 0.31 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.65 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.15 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.34 percent.1,2
Stocks Under Pressure
The S&P 500 and the small-cap index Russell 2000 hit all-time intraday highs on Tuesday before trending lower. The decline turned into a three-day retreat for stocks.3
Adding to the selling pressure was Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who made cautious comments on stock price valuations on Tuesday. Investors were also watching a possible government shutdown as Congressional budget deliberations appeared to stall.4,5
It was the first time in six months that all three averages (Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq) declined over three consecutive sessions.6
Stocks rebounded Friday after the Personal Consumption & Expenditures (PCE) Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—was in line with expectations. The news appeared to reassure investors that the Fed would move ahead with its “penciled-in” rate adjustments for the remainder of this year.7
Economic Snapshot
A flurry of updated economic data hit last week. Here are the key takeaways:
Overall, the indicators suggested a strong economy. The final estimate of Q2 gross domestic product was 3.8 percent, stronger than previous reports. Durable goods orders rebounded in August, driven by a surge in aircraft orders. And weekly jobless claims fell.8
The fact that the PCE was in line with estimates—core inflation of 2.9 percent year over year—was welcomed news for investors. The report seemed to support Fed Chair Powell’s position, who on Tuesday suggested that weakness in the labor market outweighed concerns about stubborn inflation.9
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Pending Home Sales. Fed Officials speak: Christopher Waller (Fed governor), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President), John Williams (New York Fed President), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President), and Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President).
Tuesday: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Job Openings. 1-Year Treasury Bill Auction. Consumer Confidence. Fed Officials speak: Philip Jefferson (Fed Vice Chair), Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President).
Wednesday: ADP Employment Report. Construction Spending. ISM Manufacturing Index. PMI Composite (Manufacturing). Auto Sales.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Factory Orders. Lorie Logan speaks. Fed Balance Sheet.
Friday: Employment Report. PMI Composite (Services). ISM Services Index. Fed Officials speak: John Williams, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; September 26, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of September 15th Recap
Stocks posted solid gains last week, propelled by the Fed’s decision to cut short-term interest rates.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.22 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.21 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.05 percent. By contrast, the MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.27 percent.1,2
Third Week of Gains for S&P, Nasdaq
Stocks advanced to start the week following the president’s positive comments on trade talks with China. The news helped push the S&P 500 to close above 6600 for the first time.3
After the Fed announced on Wednesday that it was cutting short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, all three major averages fell before rising again in a choppy, mixed trading session.4,5
After digesting the Fed decision, all three major averages posted solid gains on Thursday, paced by tech names. But small caps stole the day’s headlines, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining more than 2 percent and hitting an intraday record high. Smaller companies tend to disproportionately benefit when the Fed lowers interest rates, given their greater reliance on outside funding than larger companies.6
The post-cut momentum continued into Friday; this was the second consecutive week of gains for the Dow Industrials, and the third straight week for the Nasdaq and S&P 500.7
Following the Fed
The Federal Reserve decision brought the Federal Funds Rate down to a 4-4.25 percent target range—its lowest level in three years.
While widely anticipated, the real news about the cut was in the finer points made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference. He said the move was essentially a “risk management” cut. This concept confused investors a bit, resulting in scattered markets.
Powell also said two more rate adjustments are “penciled in” for this year. He suggested another rate change could occur in 2026, followed by another in 2027.8
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Fed Officials speak: John Williams (New York Fed President), Alberto Musalem (St. Louis Fed President), Stephen Miran (Fed governor), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President), and Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed President).
Tuesday: PMI Composite. Fed Officials speak: Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed President), and Jerome Powell (Fed Chair) speak.
Wednesday: New Home Sales. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks.
Thursday: Fed Officials speak: Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President), John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr (Fed governor), Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed President), and Mary Daly. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—third estimate. Durable Goods. Weekly Jobless Claims. Trade Balance in Goods. Fed Balance Sheet. Retail & Wholesale Inventories. Existing Home Sales.
Friday: Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) Index. Consumer Sentiment. Tom Barkin and Michelle Bowman speak.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; September 19, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of September 8th Recap
Stocks posted a solid gain last week, riding a rally in megacap tech stocks while overcoming interest rate anxiety, a downward revision to jobs data, and mixed inflation reports.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.59 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 2.03 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.95 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 1.18 percent.1,2
Stocks at New Highs
Stocks rose to start the week on renewed AI enthusiasm, with the Nasdaq hitting a new record intraday high. Stocks continued to push ahead on Tuesday despite fresh data showing large downward revisions to job creation for the 12 months through March.3
The rally continued midweek after an unexpected drop in wholesale inflation appeared to boost investors’ hopes for Fed rate moves before the year’s end.4,5
Investors cheered Thursday’s consumer inflation report, anticipating that the reading wouldn’t be enough to derail a Fed rate move this month. The S&P and Nasdaq posted record intraday highs and closes three days in a row, while the Dow Industrials cracked 46,000 for the first time.6
The Nasdaq hit a new record close on Friday, while the S&P 500 flattened out and the Dow posted a modest loss on the week’s last day of trading.7
Fed Meets After Mixed Inflation Reports
Wednesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent in August after a 0.7 percent increase in July. Then, on Thursday, fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that retail prices rose a hotter-than-expected 0.4 percent in August—faster than July’s 0.3 percent gain.8,9
All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell this week. He is expected to outline his plan to adjust rates at the Fed’s scheduled two-day meeting, which ends on Wednesday, September 17. Investors will be looking for insights about how he plans to guide the economy through this period of sluggish job growth and stubborn consumer inflation.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: Retail Sales. Import Price Index. Industrial Production. Business Inventories. Home Builder Confidence Index.
Wednesday: Housing Starts. Building Permits. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision. Fed Chair Powell Press Conference.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims. Leading Economic Indicators.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; September 12, 2025. The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
Week of September 2nd Recap
Stocks made gains last week, even as megacap tech gains outweighed economic concerns.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.33 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.14 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average descended 0.32 percent. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.04 percent.1,2
Tech Gains, Jobs Slow
Markets started the week on shaky ground. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each slipped downward more than half a percentage point. Tariff uncertainty rose again, as a court ruling injected fresh doubt. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields amplified volatility and rattled megacap tech names.3
By Tuesday, stocks managed a partial rebound, and market direction shifted. Tech bounced back the next morning—led by two megacap tech stocks’ gains—with one soaring after avoiding an antitrust penalty.4
On Thursday, softer private hiring data and rising layoff trends fueled hopes of an imminent Fed rate move, with the S&P hitting a fresh record close. Treasury yields dropped significantly on rate-cut speculation, reinforcing risk appetite. The mood shifted again on Friday. A surprisingly weak jobs report undercut market optimism.5,6
Focus on Jobs
Friday’s employment report fell short, as employers created fewer jobs last month.
Unemployment increased to 4.3 percent in August from 4.2 percent the prior month, hitting a 4-year high. Job growth slowed to 22,000 jobs in August, after much higher expectations of 75,000. In addition, a revision of the June estimate decreased the number by 27,000 jobs.7
This Week: Key Economic Data
Monday: Consumer Credit.
Tuesday: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Wednesday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Wholesale Inventories.
Thursday: Consumer Price Index (CPI). Weekly Jobless Claims. Federal Budget.
Friday: Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Investors Business Daily – Econoday economic calendar; September 5, 2025
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.
