Weekly Market Update:
Each week we will offer a very brief market update to help keep you informed on the latest. Want the latest delivered right to your email? Click HERE to provide your email address.
Market Updates
Week of September 30, 2024 – Global stocks fell -0.01%, and international stocks declined -0.54%. For U.S. equities, large-cap stocks were up +0.26%, while small-cap stocks closed -0.48% lower. In fixed income, U.S. and international bonds were down -1.24% and -0.31%, respectively. Bond returns were lower as yields rose on strong U.S. labor market data. Specific data showed the U.S. economy added 254,000 new jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, and hourly wages grew 0.4% in September. Separately this week, ISM Services data came out strong at 54.9%, showing expansion in that sector of the economy. Many investors see this data as evidence that the Federal Reserve will engineer a soft landing and avoid a recession, despite an extended period of high interest rates. Looking at the week ahead, September’s CPI and PPI inflation data will be released and Q3 earning season will begin. PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo are notable companies set to release earnings during the week.
Week of September 23, 2024 – Global stocks rose 1.48% last week, while international stocks were up 3.05%. For the U.S., large cap stocks were up 0.64% and small cap stocks dropped -0.13%. On the fixed income side, international bonds rose 0.25% while U.S. bonds fell 0.01%. Internationally, Chinese markets have risen over 20% since their economic stimulus package announcement last week, which included a surprise rate cut. In the U.S., solid GDP numbers and a better-than-expected core PCE index reading helped lift the S&P 500 and Dow Jones to another record high. This week, markets will be focused on Tuesday’s ISM manufacturing and Thursday’s jobless claims reports.
Week of September 16, 2024 – It was another good week for equities, with global stocks up 1.39% and international stocks up 1.33%. In the U.S., small caps were up 2.10%, while large cap stocks rose 1.39%, with both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 reaching all-time highs. Fixed income fell slightly, with U.S. bonds down -0.22% and international bonds down -0.19%. The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday boosted equities, and markets are currently pricing in an additional 50 bps in cuts for the remainder of 2024. This week’s scheduled remarks from a number of Fed officials will give further insight into those plans. Also of note this week will be Thursday’s initial jobless claims and Friday’s core PCE index reports.
Week of September 9, 2024 – It was a strong week for markets across the board, with global stocks up 3.47% and international stocks up 2.30%. In the U.S., large cap stocks rose 4.06%, driven largely in part by tech returns, with Nvidia up over 12% on the week. Small caps finished up 4.39%. Fixed income was also positive, with U.S. bonds up 0.51% and international bonds up 0.33%. Investors will be watching for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday for further guidance from the Fed. Markets are now pricing a 60% probability of a 50bps cut (40% probability of a 25bps cut), following last week’s mixed inflation data. Chairman Powell will deliver remarks at 1:30 PM CT, following the decision.
Week of September 2, 2024 – Global stocks fell -4.11%, and international stocks declined -3.80%. For U.S. stocks, large and small caps closed -4.22% and -5.67% lower, respectively. Fixed income saw positive returns with U.S. and international bonds up +1.29% and +0.66%, respectively. Stocks declined in one of their worst weeks of 2024. However, fixed income saw positive returns as bond yields fell and investors anticipate the beginning of interest rate cuts this month. The U.S. jobs report highlighted the week showing fewer jobs added than expected. This data print adds evidence that the U.S. labor market is slowing and provides more reason for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the bond market is predicting a 25-bps interest rate cut when the Fed releases its decision on September 18th. Looking at the week ahead, August’s CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) inflation data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Apple will unveil its new AI-capable iPhone on Monday morning; its stock has seen a +30.9% return over the last six months.
Week of August 26, 2024 – Global and international stocks were +0.21% and +0.18% higher, respectively. For U.S. stocks, large caps closed +0.27% higher while small caps dropped -0.01%. Fixed income had a tougher week as U.S. bonds fell -0.51% and international bonds closed -0.18% lower. August was another positive month for stocks, and the consumer defensive, real estate, and healthcare sectors led markets higher. During the week, PCE inflation data printed in line with expectations. The index rose +0.2% in July and +2.5% over the last year. Inflation remains relatively close to the Fed’s 2% annual target as investors expect the first interest rate cut this month. Looking ahead, it is a busy week for economic data. ISM services, ISM manufacturing, and the U.S. jobs report will all report August’s numbers.
Week of August 19, 2024 – It was another positive week for markets as global and international stocks rose +1.77% and +2.26%, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed +1.47% higher, while small-cap stocks led all other major asset classes up +3.62%. For fixed income, U.S. and international bonds were +0.67% and +0.26% higher, respectively. Stocks were higher, and bond yields lower, as investors continue to expect an interest rate cut in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated “The time has come for policy to adjust” in his Jackson Hold Symposium speech on Friday. More interest rate sensitive market segments, such as small-cap stocks, celebrated this news and outperformed the broader market. This next week is a busier week for earnings as we will see quarterly results from Nvidia, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Fitch, Best Buy, and a handful of others. Additionally, the PCE Index is scheduled to print July’s inflation data on Friday.
Week of August 12, 2024 – It was a positive week for markets with global and international stocks up +3.88% and +3.66%, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks were +3.99% higher, and small-cap stocks rose +2.98%. For fixed income, U.S. bonds climbed +0.53%, and international bonds closed +0.11% higher. The S&P 500 had its best week of the year as stocks rallied following the past few weeks of negative returns. Some positive economic data also supported investors’ buyback. July U.S. retail sales were significantly higher than expected, July inflation data remained relatively low, and initial jobless claims were below expectations. Investors are now celebrating positive data as a soft landing seems to be the consensus for the U.S. economy. Looking at the week ahead, quarterly earnings continue with notable prints from Lowe’s, Target, Snowflake, Zoom Video, and Peloton. Also, investors will be in tune with the FOMC as they release the minutes from its July meeting on Wednesday.
Week of August 5, 2024 – Markets were mixed as global and international stocks rose +0.26% and +0.69%, respectively. However, U.S. broad markets were down as large-cap stocks dropped -0.02% and small-cap stocks closed -1.32% lower. In fixed income, U.S. bonds fell -0.82% and international bonds were +0.02% higher. Stock markets saw a more positive end to the week after a poor day on Monday following July’s weaker jobs report. Stronger than expected July ISM Services showed growth in the services side of the U.S. economy, and a lower initial jobless claims number brought some positivity to the labor market. This data contributed to the stock market’s recovery towards the end of the week. It’s a busier week ahead as July’s PPI (Producer Price Index) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data are released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. U.S. retail sales will post on Thursday and earnings reports from Home Depot and Walmart will all provide insight on the health of the consumer.
Week of July 29, 2024 – Stock market indices were down as global and international stocks fell -2.30% and -2.56%, respectively. In the U.S., large-cap stocks dropped -2.05% and small-cap stocks closed -6.66% lower. However, fixed income markets were positive as bond yields fell. U.S. bonds climbed +2.43% higher, and international bonds were up +1.11%. A weaker U.S. jobs report on Friday contributed to the stock market decline and bond rally. Specifically, the U.S. added only 114,000 new jobs in July, compared to economists’ estimate of 185,000. The unemployment rate hit 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021. Additionally, the Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates in their decision on Wednesday. However, they noted that a cut could come as early as September if inflation continues to move down to their 2% annual target. Looking ahead, it is a slower week for economic data with Monday’s ISM Services number being the most notable activity. On the other hand, more than 70 companies in the S&P 500 will report quarterly earnings this week. Walt Disney, Eli Lilly, and Uber are a few of the most popular names.
Week of July 15, 2024 – Global stocks fell 2.21%, and international stocks closed 2.67% lower. In the U.S., large-cap stocks dropped 1.95%, while small-cap stocks were 1.69% higher. For fixed income markets, U.S. bonds closed 0.33% lower, and international bonds climbed 0.24% higher. Last week’s reversal continued as some investors sold out of the recent mega-cap stock winners and moved into smaller stocks. For economic data, initial jobless claims rose slightly from the previous week as the unemployment rate has moved higher year-to-date. The strength of the labor market continues to be in focus with the Federal Reserve potentially in an interest rate cutting cycle. After a quieter week for markets, Q2 earnings will pick up in the week ahead. Alphabet, Tesla, Southwest Air, American Airlines, General Motors, and Ford are notable companies reporting earnings. Additionally, the PCE Index is scheduled to print June’s inflation data on Friday.
Week of July 8, 2024 – Stock and bond markets were up for the week. Global stocks climbed 1.26% higher, and international stocks rose 1.87%. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 0.89% higher, and small-cap stocks rallied 6.01% higher. For fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed 0.82% and 0.42% higher, respectively. Markets rallied on inflation data that showed prices are coming down for the consumer. The June CPI print stated a change of -0.1% which brought CPI down to +3% over the last twelve months. Since higher interest rates have clearly shown their impact on lowering prices, investors now fully predict the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September. Looking ahead, earnings will pick back up this week as banks such as Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley will release their quarterly reports. Investors will also anticipate monthly prints from U.S. retail sales and various housing data throughout the week.
Week of July 1, 2024 – Global stocks climbed 2.10%, and international stocks were 2.39% higher for the week. For the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 1.98% higher, while small-cap stocks fell 1.01%. In fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed 0.71% and 0.15% higher, respectively. Both ISM services and manufacturing indices had contractionary prints for June showing that the U.S. economy weakened during the month. Also, the U.S. jobs report showed over 200,000 new jobs were created, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June (its highest level since November 2021). Clearly, high interest rates have taken a recent toll on the U.S. economy and labor market. However, the Federal Reserve may be on the cusp of cutting interest rates, which could provide a needed boost. Looking ahead, CPI and PPI inflation data will highlight the week with prints on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Week of June 24, 2024 – Global stocks closed 0.12% higher, and international stocks rose 0.35% during the week. In the U.S., large-cap stocks dropped 0.06%, and small-cap stocks climbed 1.33%. For fixed income, U.S. and international bonds closed 0.65% and 0.21% lower, respectively. As the first half of 2024 ends, mega-cap technology stocks continue to lead the way largely due to investors’ excitement over artificial intelligence. For context, the tech-heavy S&P 500 is up 15.29% this year.
Additionally this week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE Index posted no change in May. This shows higher interest rates are impacting prices as inflation has risen only 2.6% over the last 12 months. May’s new and pending home sales were also below investor’s expectations as higher mortgage rates and home prices are turning away some home buyers. Looking at the week ahead, ISM services and manufacturing data will help show the current state of U.S. businesses. Also, the U.S. jobs report will be released on Friday, following Thursday’s trading holiday.
Week of June 17, 2024 – Stock market indices were higher as global stocks climbed 0.50%, and international stocks rose 0.26%. In the U.S., large-cap and small-cap stocks closed 0.63% and 0.80% higher, respectively. Bond indices were slightly lower with U.S. bonds falling 0.15%, and international bonds closing 0.08% lower. The S&P 500 has seen consistently higher returns in the last year and has now seen 377 days without at least a 2.05% decline. This is the longest stretch since 2008 and is largely due to investors adding to their positions in mega-cap technology companies. On Friday, banking regulators stated that weakness was found in the living wills of four of the eight largest U.S. Banks (Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America). A living will outlines resolution plans for a financial institution if a crisis or failure occurs. Despite this negative news, all four companies’ stocks were higher coming into Monday. Looking at the week ahead, May’s personal income and expenditures report highlights the week on Friday. This report includes data from the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
Week of June 10, 2024 – Markets were mixed for the week as global stocks rose 0.50%, and international stocks fell 1.48%. In the U.S., large-cap stocks closed 1.62% higher, and small-cap stocks declined 0.95%. Fixed income markets showed strong returns with U.S. and international bonds closing 1.31% and 0.66% higher, respectively. Bonds rallied as May inflation data from the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) were lower than anticipated, which caused lower U.S. bond yields. This data increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts as well, and markets now see an 80% probability of two cuts by the end of the year. Although cuts seem more likely, there have been no changes yet as the FOMC kept interest rates constant after meeting this week. Looking at the week ahead, economic data from U.S. retail sales will come on Tuesday, and various housing data will be released Wednesday through Friday. This will also be a shortened week for markets with the Juneteenth holiday on Wednesday.
Week of June 3, 2024 – Global stocks climbed 0.89%, and international stocks closed 0.20% higher. In the U.S., large-cap stocks led the way once again with a 1.36% gain, while small-cap stocks fell 2.07%. In fixed income markets, U.S. and international bonds closed 0.44% and 0.46% higher, respectively. U.S. services bounced back with May’s ISM number jumping to 53.8%, which indicates expansion for the sector. This month’s job report also showed strength as more jobs were created than expected, and hourly wages climbed 0.4%. Because of this positive economic data, the probability of earlier interest rate cuts declined. Investors now see the first cut potentially coming in September, with a 54% probability. Looking at the week ahead, CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Produce Price Index) inflation data will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. The Federal Reserve will also make an official interest rate decision on Wednesday.
